Western intelligence analysts and media must be careful in how they portray the extent of Iran's hand in the escalating Mideast crisis, warns a new report by one of America's top foreign policy experts, or risk "blowing up suspicions and limited facts into full-blown conspiracies."
Hostilities between Israel and Shiite militant group Hezbollah entered their second week as Israeli jets pounded targets in Lebanon and Katyusha rockets fell on northern Israel. Violence on both sides of the border has killed at least 260 people and forced tens of thousands to flee their homes, while mutual brinkmanship suggests there is no end in sight.
Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has said Hezbollah orchestrated the kidnapping of two Israeli soldiers last Wednesday with the blessing of Iran, its long-time benefactor, to divert international attention from Tehran's nuclear program. He vowed there will be no negotiations or time limit to Israeli aggression until Hezbollah releases the men, ceases cross-border attacks and disarms in accord with a 2004 U.N. Security Council resolution that places the Lebanese army along the border.
Hezbollah, in turn, maintains it is ready to wage a protracted fight, and it now appears they have the firepower to do so: Western experts estimate the movement has stockpiled more than 10,000 short-range Katyushas (12-18 miles or 19-28 kms.); longer-range missiles such as the Iranian-made Fajr (25-45 miles or 40-70 kms.); and a handful of devices that could in theory reach Tel Aviv.
This improved arsenal has prompted Israeli officials and military officers to find fresh justification to strike Iran, Hezbollah's chief arms supplier and the Jewish state's mortal enemy, headed by a radical president who has threatened to "wipe Israel off the map."
But Iran's material support for Hezbollah has carried on for years, and its role in provoking the latest bout of Mideast violence remains uncertain, according to Anthony Cordesman, chair in strategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.
"Iran has been supplying rockets… for years," writes Cordesman in a report released Tuesday. "There is no evidence that it dominates the Hezbollah or has more control than Syria, and the fact its ties to Hezbollah are so well known creates more problems for Iran in European eyes, and raises more risk of Israeli strikes or U.S. strikes in the future."
Iran has been a steady source of funding and weapons since it created Hezbollah as a proxy in 1982 to oust Israeli forces from Lebanon. The Islamic republic is believed to provide financial aid and military services worth $25-50 million a year, mostly in the form of unguided short-range rockets characterized by exceptionally poor accuracy. Such projectiles can "easily kill the inhabitants of 1-2 buildings," as recent laun
Source: United Press International
